Reflection · May 2024 · 8 min

I read for eight months and shipped one app

I spent most of a year building a map of preference elicitation across psychometrics, experimental economics, social choice theory and machine learning. The map was good. It was also the wrong deliverable, and I knew that months before I changed anything.

What happened

I was asked to produce a literature review and an experiment design for comparing methods of collecting human preference data. I produced a very large literature review, a partial experiment design, one deployed data-collection app, and no completed study.

The review was genuinely good. It connected work that does not usually get connected: the psychometrics of paired comparison going back to Thurstone in 1927 and a 1969 monograph on the method; discrete-choice experiments from health economics; multi-criteria decision analysis and best-worst scaling; computational social choice and voting theory; the HCI literature on annotation interfaces; and the then-current wave of alignment work — RLHF, DPO, IPO, KTO, Nash learning from human feedback. As far as I know that synthesis did not exist anywhere in one place. Some of it I still think is genuinely useful, and the four other posts on this site drawing on that period exist because of it.

Six months in, I wrote to my collaborator: "it is going slowly because I am connecting dots across a large number of disciplines." I meant it as an explanation. Reading it back, it is a description of the problem wearing the costume of a justification.

The structure of the failure

Breadth-first research has a specific and seductive failure mode, and it is not laziness. It is that every individual step is defensible.

You are writing about pairwise comparison. That leads you to Bradley–Terry. That leads you to the question of how many comparisons are needed for a connected ranking, which is a real question you genuinely need answered. Answering it properly leads to Plackett–Luce and the sampling-design literature. Which raises active learning and bandit approaches to stimulus selection. Each hop is justified by the previous one. None is a detour. And after eight weeks of entirely defensible hops you have a magnificent map and no experiment.

The seduction is that the map keeps producing genuine insights, so the feedback signal stays positive right up until the deadline. Depth-first work fails loudly — you hit a wall, you know you hit it. Breadth-first work fails silently, and the failure is only visible in aggregate, which is precisely the view you do not have while you are inside it.

There was also an ordering problem I created for myself. I was trained to write papers in the order methods → results → discussion → literature review → introduction → abstract, and I followed that order through the whole of my PhD. My collaborator's instruction was the opposite: start with the abstract, always, and end with the abstract. I resisted this, on the grounds that I could not frame an introduction before knowing what the results were.

I now think the instruction was correct and my objection missed its point. An abstract written first is not a summary. It is a commitment device — a statement of the claim you intend to be able to make, written down early enough that everything after it can be checked against it. Had I written that abstract in September, the review would have had a stopping condition. Instead it had a subject, which is not the same thing and does not terminate.

What the honest verdict is

Asked afterwards what I would change, my answer was: I could have worked more towards tangible results instead of gathering references and making notes.

I want to be careful not to over-correct here, because there is a version of this reflection that is just self-flagellation and it would be inaccurate. The reading was not wasted. The disconnected-graph problem I have written about elsewhere was only diagnosable because I had gone deep enough into ranking models to know that connectivity was a precondition. The procedure-invariance literature is the reason I could state what was actually at stake in comparing elicitation formats. That is what the map bought.

But the project needed a completed study, and a completed study was achievable with a fraction of that reading. Three elicitation methods, one stimulus set, a few hundred participants, inter-rater agreement and response time as the outcomes. I proposed roughly that at one point — pairwise, rating scale, and a category-based n-AFC — and then went back to reading instead of building it.

The proximate cause of the shortfall was not the reading. It was that I never converted the reading into a scoped, dated plan and defended it. When I was eventually asked directly for a plan with time estimates, I gave a date and missed it, because the plan was a date rather than a scope.

The opinion

A literature review spanning four disciplines is a real contribution and was the wrong deliverable, and those two statements are fully compatible.

The reason they are compatible is that value and fit are different axes, and research culture systematically conflates them. Producing something genuinely good is treated as sufficient justification for having produced it. It is not. The question is not "is this valuable" but "is this the thing that most needed doing, given what else was not getting done."

I would add a sharper version, which I hold with less confidence but do believe: in a small team without institutional slack, breadth-first research is a luxury good, and the person doing it usually cannot tell it has become one. In a university group with a five-year horizon, eight months of synthesis is normal and healthy. In a small applied setting the same work needs a forcing function attached to it from day one, and the person best placed to attach it is the person doing the reading — who is exactly the person least motivated to, because the reading feels productive.

What I do differently

Three things, concretely.

Write the claim first. Not the abstract as literary form — the single sentence I intend to be able to defend at the end. If I cannot write it, I do not yet know what I am doing, and more reading is unlikely to fix that.

Timebox synthesis and ship the minimum study. The smallest experiment that would move the claim from unsupported to supported, run early, is worth more than a complete understanding of the surrounding field. I have started treating the minimum viable study as the deliverable and the literature as the thing that gets sampled in service of it.

Notice the justification-shaped explanation. "It is slow because the field is broad" is a description of the situation, not a reason for the situation to continue. When I catch myself explaining a delay in terms of the subject's properties rather than my choices, that is the signal.

Whether these actually hold under pressure I cannot tell you from here. They are corrections applied after the fact to a project that had already run out of runway, which is the weakest possible evidence for a behavioural change. I am reporting them as intentions with a known failure history, not as a method.

Caveats

This is a self-assessment, and self-assessments of this kind have an obvious reliability problem in both directions — too harsh reads as performance, too generous reads as evasion. The one externally checkable fact is the ratio: roughly eight months, one deployed app, one contributed dataset analysis, one extensive review, zero completed method-comparison studies. Draw your own conclusion about the balance; that is the number I would want if I were reading someone else's version of this.

I should also say that the project had real constraints I have not itemised — dependencies on other people's timelines, a mid-project pivot in scope, and a few weeks lost to a family medical situation. All true, all real, and none of them the reason. The reading was the reason.